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KTF replied to Jesse Paul Buck's discussion 'Short Position'

I generally don't scan anything with less than an average volume of $1,000,000 for shorting. Most of the time there is insufficient inventory, and to go through the effort and find this out is very frustrating.

on Saturday

KTF commented on Craig Wells's blog post 'Has SPY topped yet?!'

"The Top" has been frustratingly illusive. I have always expected the top of wave 2 to occur in October. Wave 1 was approximately 17 months long from October 2007 to March 2009. Since waves can also show fib retracements, and a 38% retracement of 17…

October 17, 2009

KTF commented on lionel319's blog post 'Elliott Wave on SPY'

You are essentially correct in your analysis. Some details differ. Some of us have the corrective wave up from March labelled as a WXY wave which is a double zig zag. Nevertheless, the conclusions for the future are similar, and we are probably very…

October 12, 2009

KTF replied to Gar, Joe's discussion 'Market Timing'

I agree. This is either the last rally before a signifigant decline or we have already begun that decline. We have 5 waves down from September 23. This could be the first wave down, or wave C of a correction. So far there are 3 waves up from the 25t…

September 28, 2009

KTF replied to Nick's discussion 'Finding Stocks to Swing Trade'

Great advice. I too have given up trying to follow everything, I don't even run scans any more, instead I am choosing a limited number of stocks and ETFs to follow combining Elliott wave, candlesticks and divergences with technical indicators. Chec…

September 26, 2009

KTF commented on Bryan Leighton's blog post '2010 Should Be A Doozy!'

Very well put Brian. The optimism and number of calls that the recession is over, is very consistent, in Elliott wave terms, of the top of a wave 2. Generally by the top of wave 2 everyone is forecasting that bear market is over. It is impossible t…

September 5, 2009

KTF replied to Chilling's discussion 'Market Direction (S&P)'

I see the key level at 968.85, the bottom of wave 4, as shown in Craig's post on August 10 above. The pullback, if it is a pullback, and not the beggining of a large drop, seems almost complete.

August 18, 2009

KTF replied to Craig's discussion 'Volume, the Great Deceiver...'

Thanks Craig. This is something I've believed for a long time. I did start a discussion on this very topic. The use of volume is so ill-defined that it is useless for any objective trading system.

August 4, 2009

KTF's Blog

Warren Buffet

Just wondering if anybody else there thinks Warren Buffet is taking one for the team, when he suggests we should all be buying. Of course, he could be right. But it strikes me as strange that he has become the latest cheerleader trying to stop the market from capitulating.

There is a chance this could be his Colin Powell moment. I'm referring of course to Powell lying in front of the United Nations, telling the world Iraq had WMD. Powell looked very uncomfortable, and destroyed his credibility… Continue

Posted on October 24, 2008 at 4:07pm — 1 Comment

[ Draft ]

Stunning silence out there. Everyone shellshocked?

Posted on September 29, 2008 at 8:10pm — 2 Comments

Got in on this kicker today. Have had only had two trades since June 16, and wanted to exercise my…

Got in on this kicker today. Have had only had two trades since June 16, and wanted to exercise my itchy trigger finger. Support at 45,… Continue

Posted on July 15, 2008 at 4:52pm —

Comment Wall (8 comments)

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At 10:55pm on April 14, 2009, Shawn said…: I'm a little awake now.....

At 11:32pm on December 4, 2008, LouieBW said…: She was mine but she passed away earlier this year. She had a lot of health issues but she made it to about 10 years. I miss that old dog.

At 9:41pm on September 29, 2008, ccwells said…: Let’s stay with the S&P 500 index to keep it simple. Do realize that we are in a 3rd of a 3rd wave. First, we know that wave 1 started 5/19/08 and ended 7/15/08. Second, wave 2 ended 8/11/08. If price do continue, (we still could be in a large abc correction, which EWI says that a close below 1125 will greatly decrease the odds for that to happen), we could see prices drop to the 900 level.

Take the price drop in wave one and subtract it from the top of wave two, you will come to 1073 level. That would be where wave 3 equals wave 1. Since a 3rd wave cannot be the shortest wave and we are in a 3rd of a 3rd, expect the price to extend lower.

I hope you have your house in order and do not have any debt, because this is going to be nasty! This is just the beginning. EWI says that this is just the start of wave 1 of a larger wave. When it is all said and done, they expect the DOW to be around the 400 level. That is hard to imagine and harder to believe! Just be prepared.

I had purchased a Oct Put in the DIA for 2.55 and closed it out this afternoon at 5.60. Cha-Ching! I am looking for a bounce tomorrow and will try to put in an order for a Nov Put in the DIA or SPY.

Be good and smart in your trading. Let’s not get greedy!

At 10:32pm on September 23, 2008, ccwells said…: Yes it does. It gives me a long term view of where the markets are heading. It gets a little tricky on the short term. As you probably already know, corrective patterns can be complex and hard to anticipate.

It can be very valuable when you use your own indicators which you have tested and know very well.

It has helped me to a certain degree during this market crisis. I have made some misstakes in not taking profits when I should, especially with the amount of volitility in the market. I have to stay focused and make those smaller profits when they arise, instead of waiting on the big moves. There will be a time when hanging on will be the best trade when we break out to the down side when it happens.

Go to www.elliottwave.com and take a look, even try a trial subscription and take a good look. It want cost anything for just looking.

At 10:09pm on September 22, 2008, ccwells said…: I agree that we come to the same conclusion though our interpretation of the wave count is different. In saying that, let’s move on.

Today was a good start with my interpretation with an immediate decline. We still could be in a C wave upwards ending above 8/11/08 highs. With that in mind a new key level is the 1255.37. If my interpretation is correct, this level should not be broken. We do have a series of impulse waves down since the high of 9/19/08. However, I do not have a complete impulse wave of any significance. I count several 1 & 2 waves at this point. Tomorrow should help make things a little clearer.

The key level on the downside is the 9/18/08 low of 1133.50. A break of this level would initiate a huge selling panic.

Good trading!

At 9:26pm on September 20, 2008, ccwells said…: Thanks for responding. I concur with your scenario #2. I hope you have read my comments I have posted on my home page and notice the wave counts I have posted.

Elliott Wave International Daily Forecast, which I subscribe to, labels the drop from October to a low in March as wave 1. Wave 2 ends in May. The Drop into July is wave 1 of lesser degree and the correction ending in August. From there, they leave it open. This is where I need your help in walking through the wave patterns with me

As I study the chart for the S&P 500, the wave count is relative easy up until the wave 2 high on 8/11/08. After that, it gets a little more complex. I studied the chart at the daily, 60 minute, 10 minute, and 5 minute intervals and believe we have a couple more 1 and 2 waves of lesser degree. What this suggest is an explosion in price due being like a spring wound too tight. When it releases, it will be very explosive.

So, what is the wave pattern after 8/11/08? This is my interpretation. Look over it and comment when I error and confirm where you agree. Wave 1 of even lesser degree drops to 8/13/08 and corrects to 9/2/08 for wave two. This corrective wave is an expanded triangle. Then again another wave 1 of lesser degree again drops to 9/5/08. We have these successive waves 1 & 2 is because wave 4 cannot overlap into wave 1.

From 9/5/08 is where I had some real difficulty trying to interpret the wave count. I stuck to the Elliott Wave rules and principles and this is what I come up with.
1) Wave A up to 9/8/08 opening.
2) 5 waves down from 9/8/08 to 9/11/08 to form wave a of lesser degree as part of zigzag.
3) Wave b ends 9/12/08.
4) 5 wave down ends 9/18/08 to end wave c of B which ends he zigzag.
5) 5 waves up ends 9/19/08 to form wave C, which ends the expanded triangle.

This huge expanded flat triangle has price swings which are shaking loose as many people as possible. The market tries to take the least amount of people as it can. Only a few will actually profit from this potential move.

What does all this say? IF I am correct in my interpretation, price cannot break 1303.04. IF my interpretation is correct, we will have an explosive move downward! This will be a 3rd of a 3rd of a 3rd of a 3rd wave! I believe that prices could drop to the 900 level in the S&P in short order. As you can see, the implications of my interpretation are immensely significant.

Please study this and check for any errors or if there is any potential alternate interpretations. I do realize that 8/11/08 could be wave A and 9/18/08 could be wave B with our present price action could break above 8/11/08 for wave C. So 1303.04 and 1133.50 are very key levels to be able to confirm the proper wave count.

Bless you and good trading!
ccwells

At 12:07am on September 20, 2008, ccwells said…: KTF,

You said you follow elliot wave. I would like to discuss the current market set up with you, if you do not mind. Things are crazy and I think things are about to get crazier. Let me know this weekend if you are interested. I think Monday & Tuesday could be big days for the market!

ccwells

At 9:52am on July 16, 2008, KTF said…: Just got stopped out of AZN. Loss of $56. Main lesson, don't break from your plan. I was not going to trade longs when the market MA30>MA10. Some of the chatter had persuaded me that a bounce was due. Stick to the plan!